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After a dry fall in region, winter could be wetter

IRON MOUNTAIN — Moderate drought persists in northeastern Wisconsin and bordering Michigan counties as the National Weather Service predicts a coin-flip chance of a wet winter in the region.

A storm Sunday could bring 3 to 6 inches of wet, heavy snow to the Iron Mountain-Kingsford area, according to the NWS.

The Climate Prediction Center calls for a 45% chance of above-average precipitation through February and just a 20% chance of below-average. Temperatures may run closer to normal, with a 37% chance of above-average and a 29% chance of below.

“La Nina conditions persist in the Pacific Ocean and are forecasted to remain through spring 2022,” said CPC forecaster Johnna Infanti. “The influence of La Nina contributed substantially to the temperature and precipitation outlooks through the winter months.”

La Nina, a periodic cooling of the central Pacific, tends to steer storms northward, while cutting the southern portion of the U.S. off from moisture.

Locally, chances for a white Christmas should be well above 75%, according to AccuWeather forecasters. That prediction comes even as NWS data shows just 9% of the contiguous U.S. is covered by snow.

“That’s the lowest amount of snow coverage at this time of year since 2003, the first year records on contiguous U.S. snow coverage were tracked,” AccuWeather’s Mark Puleo said.

Snowfall in November at Iron Mountain-Kingsford totaled 6.5 inches, about normal for the month, but nearly all of that has melted.

Water-equivalent precipitation in November measured 1.1 inches, which was 0.8 inches below average. Precipitation has been at least a half-inch below normal every month since July, according to observations at the Iron Mountain-Kingsford Wastewater Treatment Plant.

Temperatures last month averaged 33 degrees, which was 0.5 degrees above the norm. The highest reading was 65 degrees Nov. 9 and the lowest was 9 degrees Nov. 25. Beginning Nov. 12, overnight lows were below freezing every day in November.

The winter solstice occurs at 9:59 a.m. Central time Tuesday, Dec. 21, marking the official start of winter.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows moderate drought across the entire northern third of Wisconsin as well as all of Menominee and Delta counties, most of Dickinson County, a southern slice of Iron County and all of Gogebic County. Elsewhere in the U.P., conditions for the most part are abnormally dry.

There is severe drought in the Ironwood area of Gogebic County and bordering Wisconsin communities.

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