KRIS KELLY FAULL takes time to water her flowers on a hot day at her home in Norway. Conditions have been dry across the region in the last part of May and opening week of June. (Terri Castelaz/Daily News photo)

IRON MOUNTAIN — After a hot start, seasonable weather could be in store for the rest of June as the National Weather Service has a neutral outlook on temperatures through August in the Upper Peninsula.

But because the eastern Pacific Ocean is turning warmer, the odds point to temperatures higher than normal this fall and winter. Chances of El Nino are greater than 90% for the winter of 2023-24, suggesting a mild snow season in the U.P., according to the Climate Prediction Center.

“At least a weak El Nino is likely, given high levels of above-average oceanic heat content, but the range of possibilities include an 80 percent chance of at least a moderate El Nino and a 55 percent chance of a strong El NIno by the end of the year,” NWS forecaster Johnna Infanti said.

El Nino, the flip side of La Nina, happens every two to seven years when ocean surface temperatures rise in the Pacific, affecting weather patterns worldwide. El Nino last occurred in 2018-19. Since 2020, an exceptionally long La Nina had persisted.

Despite a dry May, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows no areas of concern in the U.P. That could change, however, as the June forecast calls for a 55% chance of below-normal rainfall. The outlook through August is neutral.

The wildfire danger is already high in the region.

May began with 2 inches of snow on the ground at Iron Mountain-Kingsford and ended with a high of 87 degrees on May 31, which was the warmest day of the month. The lowest temperature was 30 degrees the mornings of May 25 and 26.

Only 1.78 inches of water-equivalent precipitation was measured during May at the Iron Mountain-Kingsford Wastewater Treatment Plant, which was 1.7 inches below normal. Temperatures averaged 54.9 degrees, which was 0.8 degrees above normal.

The neutral temperature forecast for summer follows a rollercoaster spring that featured both record snowfall and heat. The 88 inches of snow that fell from October through May — including a record 14 inches April 1 — was 26.5 inches above average and the most on record since 109 inches fell in 1995-96.

While no heat records were set in May, readings of 81 degrees April 13 and 85 degrees April 14 were the highest ever at Iron Mountain-Kingsford for those respective dates.

June began with unofficial highs near 90 degrees the first three days, just a bit below record warmth.

In a departure from the NWS, The Weather Channel sees a rapidly developing El Nino bringing slightly higher than normal temperatures to the U.P. this summer as heat takes hold in central Canada and the northern U.S.

Todd Crawford, vice president of meteorology at Atmospheric G2, said years with similar El Nino intensities actually resulted in widespread cooler temperatures across the Great Lakes. “We are hesitant to go too cool given the strong summer warming trends in recent decades,” he said.