LOW WATER LEVELS are apparent on the Menominee River in Niagara, Wis. Rainfall at Iron Mountain-Kingsford area since July 1 has been about 6 1/2 inches below average, officials report. (Marguerite Lanthier/Daily News photo)

IRON MOUNTAIN — A warm fall is expected to persist through October in the Upper Peninsula, while the long-range temperature outlook through winter is neutral, forecasters say.

The National Weather Service calls for a 45% chance of above-normal temperatures this month and a 20% chance of below normal. The precipitation outlook is neutral for October but leans toward above-average this winter after a record-dry September at Iron Mountain-Kingsford.

“Ongoing climate conditions indicate a continued slow trend toward potential La Nina conditions later this autumn,” NWS forecaster Jon Gottschalck said.

La Nina — a temporary natural cooling of parts of the central Pacific Ocean — has a 71% chance of emerging this fall and is expected to persist through early 2025, Gottschalck said. Near-average sea surface temperatures were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific in August.

The transition to a cooler phase comes in the wake of a 2023-24 El Nino event that help cause global temperatures to spike and contributed to record-breaking warmth locally this past winter.

September at Iron Mountain-Kingsford was the fourth-warmest on record since the early 1900s. Temperatures averaged 63.6 degrees, which was 5 degrees above normal. The warmest September was an average of 65.4 degrees in 1909.

High readings of 87 degrees were reported on Sept. 16 and 17 — slightly below record marks for those dates. The lowest reading was 40 degrees on Sept. 23.

Just 0.53 inches of rain was recorded during September at the Iron Mountain-Kingsford Wastewater Treatment Plant observation site. That was a tick below the 0.54 inches reported in 1909 and 2.84 inches below average for the month.

Rainfall was also below average in July and August, by a total of 3.75 inches.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows severe drought in all of Menominee County as well as southern Dickinson and Iron counties. In Wisconsin, the drought is severe in Florence, Marinette and Forest counties. To the north and west of the severe drought area, there is moderate drought.

Fire danger throughout the region is very high, according to the USDA Forest Service.

Rain is likely tonight, with as much as 0.25 inches predicted in the Iron Mountain area, and possibly more if there are thunderstorms, NWS said.

As peak fall colors arrive, Travel Wisconsin shows colors at 55% in Florence County. The Upper Peninsula Travel and Recreation Association says the peak in the Dickinson County area is expected next week.