THE NATIONAL WEATHER Service used lake-effect data to forecast the duration and severity of the 2022 Christmas blizzard in northwest Michigan. (National Weather Service/Gaylord)

LANSING — Proposed federal budget cuts could cripple the ability of Michigan forecasters to monitor extreme weather and climate shifts, researchers warn.

A draft plan from the White House would dismantle the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research and shut down the Great Lakes Observing System.

That system powers hundreds of buoys and models that monitor lake conditions in real time.

President Donald Trump and his administration argue that cuts like these will reduce unnecessary government spending.

But the impacts could be severe, said Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome, a lake-effect weather expert at the Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research in Ann Arbor.

The loss of these monitoring tools would result in “crude” forecasts that fail to reflect the complexity of lake-driven weather.

According to the Great Lakes Observing System, roughly 11 million meteorological observations are shared with the National Weather Service annually to inform public forecasts and weather alerts.

This data include lake temperature and ice cover readings — both essential for predicting the lake-effect snowstorms that frequently hit the Lake Michigan and Lake Superior coasts. Wave height and current data also help forecasters predict flooding and storm surges.

“We’re not going to be able to predict where and how much snow we get,” Fujisaki-Manome said. “If you don’t have that ability, municipalities might over-prepare or under-prepare for storms.”

Less reliable forecasts could mean unnecessary labor for salting roads and more preemptive school closures, she said.

The National Weather Service and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration did not respond to requests for comment.

Less reliable lake-effect forecasts could leave communities and schools in West Michigan and the Upper Peninsula facing more snow days and wasted resources, Fujisaki-Manome said.

The proposed budget cuts would also slash funding for university partnerships, coastal resilience programs and long-term climate research connected to Michigan’s changing climate, storm surge and flood risks, scientists say.

One major project at risk is the Great Lakes Coastal and Inland Flood Inundation Mapping Project, Fujisaki-Manome said.

Launched after a 2019 Lake Ontario flood caused millions of dollars in damage, the project created a model to predict future flooding events. After proving successful, the project expanded to other Great Lakes.

Now, Fujisaki-Manome said, it faces a shutdown.

It’s one of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s many models preparing Michigan’s coastal communities for the inevitable impacts of climate change hindering economic growth, she said.

Abby Hutson, a climate scientist with the Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, called the proposed cuts “disheartening.”

“We’d be losing a leader in the world of research,” she said. “It’s like saying you can’t use Tom Brady in the NFL.”

Hutson noted that operational forecasters used lake-effect data to accurately predict the duration and severity of the 2022 Christmas blizzard in northwest Michigan and the Upper Peninsula.

The storm dropped up to 3 feet of snow in areas like Antrim County, and forecasts from the National Weather Service helped local officials warn the public in time.

Hutson said losing the Great Lakes Observing System’s real-time lake monitoring network would have significant recreational impacts as well. Its data is available online for snowmobilers, boaters, anglers and others planning for safe travel.

Although Congress has the final say on the budget, NOAA can appeal specific cuts.

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said he hopes to send a final version of the budget for the next fiscal year to Trump’s desk by Memorial Day.

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Daniel Schoenherr is a reporter for Great Lakes Echo and Capital News Service at Michigan State University.