Forecast for summer: Could be warmer and possibly dry
IRON MOUNTAIN — Temperatures this summer could be a degree or two above the historical average in the Upper Peninsula, according to AccuWeather forecasters.
The National Weather Service has a similar outlook. Above-normal temperatures are favored for nearly all of the continental U.S. through August, with higher probabilities for the West, South and Northeast, NWS forecaster Dan Collins said.
AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok said extreme summer heat may visit the northern Rockies and the Plains, where records could be challenged “on multiple occasions.”
The predicted U.S. warming trend comes after the thermometer got above 70 degrees for just one day in April at Iron Mountain-Kingsford. At Marquette, the highest reading for the month was 63 degrees, NWS data showed.
Observations at the Iron Mountain-Kingsford Wastewater Treatment Plant showed an average temperature of 40.1 degrees in April, which was 0.5 degrees below this century’s norm. The highest temperature was 71 degrees on April 23 and the lowest was 12 degrees on April 1.
For those anxious to garden, the 24-hour average soil temperature at Iron Mountain at mid-afternoon Sunday was 51 degrees, according to greencastonline.com. That’s near the 10-year average for May 4.
Water-equivalent precipitation in April measured 3.77 inches at Iron Mountain-Kingsford, which was nearly an inch above normal. The snowfall total was 3.5 inches, which brought the season’s total to 51 inches.
Much of the season’s snow — 21.4 inches — came in March. But with frequent thaws, the highest snow depth total during March was 6 inches and the average was 2 inches. For the entire winter, the highest snow depth at Iron Mountain-Kingsford was 13 inches on Feb. 16. That fell quickly to 2 inches by month’s end.
An ice and snow storm at the end of March that resulted in widespread power outages delivered slightly more than an inch of water-equivalent precipitation over the course of two days, including 4.5 inches of snow.
The wet months of March and April wiped out a moderate drought in parts of the Upper Peninsula. The U.S. Drought Monitor, however, continues to show abnormally dry conditions to the west. That’s the case for much of Wisconsin’s Vilas County and all of the state’s northwest corner.
NWS forecasters predict a drier May ahead, with a 45% chance of below-average precipitation in the U.P. and a 20% chance of above average. The outlook through August for the region is neutral for the eastern half but a drier summer is slightly favored in the west.
AccuWeather predicts “some” drought risk for Wisconsin and the U.P. from June through August. “Drought coverage will be widespread across the High Plains and West this summer,” Pastelok said.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports that La Nina — marked by cooler-than-average ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific — has come to an end. Its counterpart El Nino is also absent and a neutral phase is expected to last at least into early fall.
El Nino is typically linked to milder winters in the U.P. and La Nina the opposite. At this time, the 2025-26 winter forecast for the region is neutral, according to NWS.
The very early morning hours today and Tuesday may be a good time to view the Eta Aquariid meteor shower, according to the American Meteor Society. The source of the shower is debris from Halley’s comet.