After a wet June, forecast favors a warmer July

Meghan Rossato used a water gun from the FMR softball team float to cool off Tiffany Lafond during Norway's Independence Day parade, which despite being in early evening Friday still had temperatures near the 90s. Forecasters predict the rest of July could see above-average temperatures as well. (Terri Castelaz/Daily News photo)
IRON MOUNTAIN — High temperatures in July usually average about 80 degrees at Iron Mountain-Kingsford, but forecasters see a fair chance this month will be hotter.
The Climate Prediction Center calls for a 55% chance of above-average temperatures this month and just an 11% chance of below average. Seasonable weather is expected the next few days after highs approached 90 degrees both Friday and Saturday before dipping into the 70s Sunday.
The three-month local outlook through September favors above-normal temperatures at a probability less than 40%, according to National Weather Service forecaster Brad Pugh. The three-month precipitation outlook is neutral for the eastern half of the Upper Peninsula but slightly favors below-normal rainfall for the western half.
“The highest forecast confidence for above-normal temperatures — probabilities more than 60 percent — during July, August and September is across the Great Basin (in the western U.S.) and New England,” Pugh said.
Temperatures in June averaged 65.6 degrees at Iron Mountain-Kingsford, which was 1.6 degrees above normal. The highest reading was 95 degrees observed June 22 — a record — and the lowest was 34 degrees June 1.
Some cooler weather at mid-month was offset by highs of 90 or better for five straight days from June 21-25.
Data from the Iron Mountain-Kingsford Wastewater Treatment Plant shows it was an exceptionally wet month, with 6.33 inches of rain measured, more than 2.5 inches above normal. It was the 12th-wettest June since record-keeping began in the early 1900s.
The wettest June at Iron Mountain-Kingsford this century was in 2010 when 7.95 inches fell, while the wettest on record was in 1916 at 9.57 inches.
Elsewhere in the U.P., Marquette reported 4.27 inches of rain in June; Munising, 3.01 inches; Baraga, 4.87 inches; Rapid River, 5.11 inches; Ironwood, 4.57 inches; and Manistique, 3.25 inches.
June was also wet last year locally, as rainfall measured 5.68 inches at the treatment plant. That was followed by a relatively dry period until November, including the driest September on record at 0.53 inches.
The U.S. Drought Monitor shows no areas of concern in the Upper Peninsula and northeastern Wisconsin.
Sea surface temperatures are mostly near average in the equatorial Pacific, leading the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to favor neither El Nino or La Nina influences through August.
There is a 48% chance of neutral conditions into winter and a 41% chance of La Nina in November, according to CPC forecasters. La Nina conditions typically favor a wetter U.P. winter.
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Jim Anderson can be reached at 906-774-2772, ext. 85226, or janderson@ironmountaindailynews.com.