The Climate Prediction Center calls for a 41 percent chance of above-average temperatures and a 25 percent chance of below-average for the three-month period from October through December.

Temperatures typically go down about 15 degrees from the beginning of October to the end. This year, overnight lows could dip into the mid-20s by Halloween, according to accuweather.com.

“It might be a good idea to locate that ice scraper if you park outside overnight,” said Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist.

Fall colors, meanwhile, are expected to peak next week. The Upper Peninsula Travel and Recreation Association reports that 25% to 40% of the leaves have changed so far in Dickinson County, with rain and clouds delaying the best of the autumn show.

Fall colors have yet to peak at Six Mile Lake in northern Dickinson County. (Brad Volz photo)

Rainfall measured 5.56 inches at the Iron Mountain-Kingsford Wastewater Treatment Plant in September, which was more than 2 inches above normal.

The 1.48 inches of rain that fell Sept. 13 was a record for that date, as was the 0.55 inches that fell Sept. 25, according to the weather service.

It was the 12th-wettest September on record, dating to the early 1900s. The wettest September was in 2010, when there was 8.54 inches of rain.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows no areas of concern across the Upper Peninsula and Wisconsin. Normal precipitation trends are expected from now through the end of December.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports Upper Midwest crop harvests are far behind schedule, reflecting heavy, widespread rains in late September. The corn and soybean harvest has barely begun, the agency said.

The average temperature at Iron Mountain-Kingsford in September was 60.4 degrees, which was 3 degrees above average since 1900, but just 1.1 degrees above average for this century. The highest temperature was 81 degrees Sept. 11 and the lowest was 42 on Sept. 9.

AccuWeather this week released its 2019-20 winter forecast, noting a number of lake-effect snow events could be ahead for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Milder weather may kick off the season, but once the polar vortex and accompanying Arctic air bust loose, that will change.

“It’s too soon to tell exactly where the coldest conditions will take hold,” AccuWeather long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok said.

“The polar vortex is particularly strong this year, and that means that frigid air is likely to remain locked up over the polar region early in winter,” Pastelok said. Cold air that could reach the Midwest at times early in the winter season is likely to originate from a Siberian connection, rather than straight from the North Pole, he said.

Jim Anderson can be reached at 906-774-3500, ext. 226, or janderson@ironmountaindailynews.com.

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