A MALLARD HEN leads her well-grown ducklings through the lily pads at Six Mile Lake in northern Dickinson County. Saturday’s warm, muggy conditions gave way to much-needed rainfall in the region. (Betsy Bloom/Daily News photo)

IRON MOUNTAIN — A drought that covers much of the western half of the country has made its way — to a lesser degree — into northern Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows abnormally dry conditions in both Dickinson and Menominee counties and moderate drought in Florence, Forest and Marinette counties in Wisconsin. The southern half of Michigan’s Iron County is also abnormally dry.

Areas of the U.S. with extreme drought — including big swaths of California, Oregon, Nevada, Utah and Texas — may get no relief soon.

“It’s going to take a lot to break this drought,” AccuWeather forecaster Paul Pastelok said. “I think going at least into the first half of fall, the moisture is just not going to be there.”

Cattle ranchers in Texas have been forced to sell off cows for slaughter ahead of schedule, which could mean higher prices as winter approaches, he continued. “We’re probably going to see a low supply of meat going into the fall and winter seasons based on the type of temperatures and heat and dryness we’re seeing,” he said.

For Wisconsin and the U.P., the National Weather Service sees about a 45% chance of below-normal precipitation from now through October, and just a 20% chance of above-normal.

Rainfall at the Iron Mountain-Kingsford Wastewater Treatment Plant measured 3.14 inches in July. That total was slightly below average, with much of it coming in a mid-month downpour.

Fall is likely to get off to a warm start across the U.S., although chances are somewhat less in the U.P. and Wisconsin. The Climate Prediction Center calls for a 40% chance of above-average temperatures in the region through October and a 25% chance of below normal.

Probabilities for above-normal temperatures are much higher in some other areas.

“The largest probabilities of above-normal temperatures exceed 60 percent for New England and parts of the West,” NWS forecaster Dan Collins said.

Temperatures in July at Iron Mountain-Kingsford averaged 68.9 degrees, which was very close to normal. The highest reading was 92 degrees July 19 and the lowest was 47 degrees July 14.

La Nina, for a third straight year, will be one of the dominant factors in the global weather pattern as waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. While no two La Nina events are alike, the pattern for the Upper Peninsula favors warmer falls.

At this point, the winter outlook is neutral.

La Nina is also linked to tropical activity across the Atlantic basin, which could lead to a higher threat of landfalling tropical systems this autumn, Pastelok said.