The Ontario, Canada-based Finch Research Network in late September released its 26th-annual Winter Finch Forecast, predicting the potential movements of a number of birds that can show up as the weather grows colder.

The forecast, prepared by Tyler Hoar, covers not just finches — such as purple finches, pine and evening grosbeaks, red and white-winged crossbills, redpolls and pine siskins — but also blue jays, red-breasted nuthatches and Bohemian waxwings.

All are considered “irruptive” species in winter, meaning their movements are keyed not by migration patterns but on availability of their food sources. If the cone or fruit crops are poor or otherwise depleted in the northern boreal forests, it can send these birds searching for places with better prospects.

The forecast, as always, stresses it applies mainly to Ontario and adjacent Canadian provinces and U.S. states. Much of the Upper Peninsula and northern Wisconsin are farther west than the normal region covered in the report.

Redpolls are among the species covered in the Winter Finch Forecast. This year the world’s three redpoll species — common, hoary and lesser in Europe — were combined into one species based on genetic testing. This is a paler redpoll that in the past might have been viewed as a possible “hoary” but now is considered just a plumage variation.

But the forecast still can be a good indicator of what might wander through here during the course of the winter.

The bad news, at least for seeing a mass influx of winter finches: the cone crop reached from northern British Columbia to eastern Quebec and “large areas of the boreal forest have an excellent berry crop for many species.” That could be enough to keep many of the birds in the boreal regions to the north or west, according to the forecast.

On the other hand: “Some areas have significant holes caused by insect infestations (spruce budworm, tent caterpillar, etc.), drought and forest fires. For example, northwestern Ontario, west of Lake Superior, is one area with poor cone crops.” Meanwhile, “areas of northern Wisconsin and Minnesota and the Adirondacks appear to have a more robust crop than the neighbouring areas.” So if movement happens, we might be worth a visit by these birds at least at some point during the winter.

So, what does the report foresee for some of the favorite winter bird species? —

— Evening grosbeaks: Perhaps the most prized of the winter finches, evening grosbeaks can be hit-and-miss — spectacular numbers in 2022-23, almost none in 2023-24. This year at least sounds like conditions could favor a decent influx. “With spruce budworm outbreaks becoming more widespread and scattered around Lake Superior, western Great Lake states may see even more movement this winter,” the forecast states.

— Purple finches: They normally do a moderate migration south, so the majority should leave Canada for the Great Plains and even southern United States. In this region they usually are pretty likely to be seen at least in late winter/early spring and then fall — I had one male show up at our feeders Wednesday.

— Pine grosbeaks: The outlook is not good for seeing these impressively large finches — adult males the color of raspberry sherbet, females and juveniles gray with touches of orange-gold — as they are expected to remain in the boreal forest. However, some could venture south if they exhaust food supplies to the north.

— Redpolls: Like the pine grosbeaks, expected to remain north. But the forecast does offer some hope — “Areas in the upper midwestern states and the Maritime provinces may see more redpoll movement as southbound birds transit the holes in the boreal cone crop.” The forecast also noted the American Ornithologists’ Union’s checklist committee this year reclassified the common redpoll, hoary redpoll and lesser redpoll in Europe as the same species, now just called redpoll. This move had been expected after genetic testing found virtually no difference between them, just color variations that made the “hoary” look more white and less streaked.

— Crossbills: With a good cone crop to the north, both the white-winged and red crossbills likely will stay in the boreal forest. Last year’s invasion of red crossbills from the west — several people in the region reported seeing them in their yards; some even sent me photos — appears to have returned west, according to the forecast. But again, the holes in the boreal cone crop may drive some flocks south, just not in numbers as in some past years.

— Pine siskins: These little gray-and-yellow, slim-billed finches were one of the bright spots last winter in terms of numbers. But the forecast predicts only a minor movement this winter as most remain in the north and west. At the feeders, they can be confused with goldfinches in winter plumage, but the siskins have streaked breasts.

— Other winter birds: The three non-finch species the forecast includes because they can be “irruptive” as well in winter all are predicted to have at least some presence in the region this winter. Blue jays are expected to have a moderate to strong flight this fall, red-breasted nuthatches a moderate flight. Since both are a year-round presence at our feeders, it’s tough to get too excited about them. Bohemian waxwings, however, are a treat to see feeding in crabapple or berry trees. These are more robust than the more familiar cedar waxwings that are only here in summer, with rust under the tail rather than yellow. While most of these birds are expected to stay north due to a good supply of berries, “with the poorer crops in northwestern Ontario, northern midwestern states may see more widespread movements of Bohemian waxwings.” Last year, Bohemian waxwings showed up at Six Mile Lake in November — a photo of one became our Christmas card — and stuck around for weeks until they had stripped the well-laden fruit trees. Not expecting a repeat of that, but it would be nice to see them return.

Other than the waxwings, all of these birds can be lured to feeders with black oil sunflower seeds or, in the case of the pine siskins and redpolls, silo feeders with nyjer seeds.

The full Winter Finch Forecast can be read at https://finchnetwork.org/winter-finch-forecast-2024-25.