Iron Mountain got its first dusting of November snow Sunday afternoon, including the 200 block of East Ludington Street. Forecasters are predicting a colder and snowier winter locally than in recent years. (Betsy Bloom/Daily News photo)

IRON MOUNTAIN — AccuWeather’s winter forecast predicts above-average snowfall and below-average temperatures for the Upper Peninsula and northern Wisconsin.

Temperatures are expected to be a degree or two below normal from December through February, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok.

“It can be an intense stormy winter for areas of the country, particularly across the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Northeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic,” Pastelok said.

The National Weather Service agrees — somewhat — putting its forecast odds slightly in favor of a snowy U.P. winter. For the period from November through January, the NWS has a neutral outlook on temperatures.

AccuWeather predicts December could be especially active around the Great Lakes as blasts of cold air fuel lake-effect snow. Frigid air may reach its peak in February, Pastelok said.

The forecasts are driven, in part, by expectations for La Nina, a climate pattern characterized by cooler-than-normal ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Nina sometimes brings cooler and wetter conditions to the northern U.S., although NWS forecaster Jon Gottschalck said it may be “a short-lived event.”

October was mild and dry at Iron Mountain-Kingsford.

The average temperature at the Iron Mountain-Kingsford Wastewater Treatment Plant observation site was 50.5 degrees, which was 5.2 degrees above average. It was the third-warmest October this century, but well below the all-time record — 56.2 degrees in 1920.

The highest temperature last month was 85 degrees Oct. 5, just below the 86-degree record set for that date in 1922. The lowest temperature last month was 27 degrees Oct. 26, 27, 28 and 29.

The first freeze didn’t come until Oct. 8. Until then, there had been no frost since May 9, according to NWS data.

October rainfall at Iron Mountain-Kingsford measured 1.48 inches, which was about an inch below average. The U.S. Drought Monitor shows abnormally dry conditions and moderate drought in nearly all of northern Wisconsin, as well as southern Dickinson County and Menominee and Delta counties in the U.P.

Significant snowfall was in the forecast for the northern U.P. early this week.

The prediction for Saturday’s Michigan firearm deer season opener is a chance of rain and a high in the upper 40s throughout the region.

———

Jim Anderson can be reached at 906-774-2772, ext. 85226, or janderson@ironmountaindailynews.com.