A snowberry clearwing moth, one of four varieties of “hummingbird moths” in North America, feeds on lilacs in full bloom May 31 at Six Mile Lake in northern Dickinson County. The insects probe for nectar in roughly the same fashion as hummingbirds, though they use a long, coiled proboscis like a straw to sip deep inside a flower. (Betsy Bloom/Daily News photo)

IRON MOUNTAIN — A National Weather Service long-range forecast favors a warm, dry start to summer in the Upper Peninsula, while the outlook through August is neutral.

The Climate Prediction Center sees a 45% chance of above-average temperatures in June and just a 20% chance of below average. The precipitation outlook slightly leans toward below average.

Weak El Nino conditions are likely to be present this summer, strengthening as fall approaches, according to forecaster Dan Collins. El Nino, the warm phase of a cyclical temperature shift in the tropical Pacific Ocean, affects weather patterns across the globe.

For the Great Lakes region, the El Nino cycle suggests a milder winter. The Climate Prediction Center sees above-normal temperature probabilities above 50% across the northern tier of the continental U.S. for December through February.

Locally, May was the first month since January to see average temperatures dip below normal for the month.

Temperatures at Iron Mountain-Kingsford averaged 52.4 degrees in May, which was nearly 2 degrees below normal.

After near-record cold early in the month, a heat wave arrived for the last week, including a 91-degree reading on May 26, the highest ever for that date.

Daily high temperatures in May typically average 66 degrees locally. For June, it’s 76; July, 80; and August, 78.

The lowest May temperature at the Iron Mountain-Kingsford Wastewater Treatment Plant observation site was 22 degrees on May 2, just one degree higher than the record low for that date set in 1990. Temperatures dipped below freezing as late as May 15, at 31 degrees.

Rainfall totaled a mere inch in May at Iron Mountain-Kingsford — about 2 1/2 inches below normal. It was the 10th-driest May since record-keeping began in 1899, but slightly wetter than May 2025 when just 0.84 inches was measured.

A wet March and April has kept drought conditions at bay in most of the U.P. The U.S. Drought Monitor, however, shows abnormally dry conditions in all of Gogebic County and much of northern Wisconsin.

More than half of Nebraska is under an extreme drought, creating a crisis for farmers.

“There is literally no deep moisture for a lot of farmers across central western Nebraska this year,” University of Nebraska-Lincoln climatologist Eric Hunt told Rural Radio Network.

According to AccuWeather, severe weather is expected to be most active from early to midsummer in the Midwest.

“The number of tornadoes can run near to above average in June and July,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok. “The numbers can drop off dramatically in August.”

While the tornado threat could be lower, severe thunderstorms may persist through August, he added.

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Jim Anderson can be reached at 906-774-2772, ext. 85226, or janderson@ironmountaindailynews.com.