Warm fall predicted after region posts third-hottest July
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IRON MOUNTAIN -- AccuWeather predicts temperatures from September through November will range 2 to 3 degrees above normal in the Upper Peninsula as a warm autumn is expected across much of the nation.
"Outdoor projects and activities which you would typically see winding down during the fall season will continue well into the season for many areas," AccuWeather forecaster Paul Pastelok said.
Dry conditions, meanwhile, could lead to a higher risk of wildfires in parts of the Great Lakes region. Locally, the National Weather Service slightly favors below-normal precipitation during the early fall.
The prediction for a warm autumn comes after Iron Mountain-Kingsford experienced its third-hottest July on record. Temperatures averaged 73 degrees last month, which was 4.5 degrees above normal.
Daily highs at the Iron Mountain-Kingsford Wastewater Treatment Plant observation site averaged 84.9 degrees, which was 3.7 degrees above this century’s average for July.
The highest reading was 100 on July 13, followed by 99 degrees the next day. Both were records for their respective dates.
The all-time highest reading at Iron Mountain-Kingsford remains 104 on July 29, 1917. With the 100-degree reading this year, 11 of the 31 dates in July list a record high of 100 or better, NWS records show.
August has only one such date -- 101 degrees on Aug. 5, 1947.
High temperatures were 90 or above on five of the first 14 days in July, but there were no highs above 90 the rest of the month. That cooler second half kept July 2026 a full 3 degrees below the hottest July on record -- an average of 76 degrees in July 1921.
The second-hottest July was in 1916, when temperatures averaged 74.5 degrees. Last month's average was tied with 2012 for the third spot.
The lowest temperature last month was 48 degrees on July 23. The record low for that date is 40 degrees, set in 1949.
Rainfall in July measured a mere 1.3 inches, which was slightly more than 2 inches below normal. It was the ninth-driest July since record-keeping began in the early 1900s. The driest was 0.81 inches in July 1933.
The National Weather Service has a neutral outlook on temperatures and rainfall for the rest of August in the U.P. and northern Wisconsin. The fall outlook from NWS is neutral on temperatures for the early season, but favors above-average temperatures from October through winter.
The U.S. Drought Monitor shows no areas of concern in the central U.P., but conditions are dry to the west, including severe drought in western Gogebic County.
Much of Wisconsin is dry, with moderate drought in most of Forest County and southern Marinette County. There is severe drought in southern Vilas County and all of Iron, Ashland and Bayfield counties.
El Nino conditions are present in the tropical Pacific and may strengthen and persist into early 2027, according to NWS. For the U.P., that points to a mild and possibly dry winter.
El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by above-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The effects of each El Nino event vary, but above-normal temperatures are expected worldwide during this cycle, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
The heat wave in mid-July was followed by Canadian wildfires sending dangerous levels of smoke into the Midwest. Current air conditions are good, and Michigan forecasters expect levels to range no higher than moderate over the next few days as large fires burn in Oregon and Washington.
Damaging wind gusts and hail are the main severe weather threats in the Midwest this fall, although AccuWeather predicts a few tornadoes are likely.
No injuries were reported as three tornadoes were confirmed in the U.P. on July 20 -- on Lake Superior between Marquette and Au Train, in Menominee County's Gourley Township and in Delta County's Ford River Township.
A tornado that tore through the Fox Cities region in Wisconsin on July 27 resulted in dozens of injuries but no deaths. About 35 structures were destroyed and hundreds more damaged, with the worst devastation in Menasha from winds estimated up to 140 mph.
There have been more than 1,400 tornado reports in the U.S. through July, higher than the historical average for the entire year, according to AccuWeather.
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Jim Anderson can be reached at 906-774-2772, ext. 85226, or janderson@ironmountaindailynews.com.