Region’s drought worsens as El Nino may be intense
Trending
IRON MOUNTAIN -- Drought conditions have turned extreme in northern Wisconsin and bordering Upper Peninsula communities, including Iron Mountain-Kingsford.
Rainfall has measured far below average since July at the Iron Mountain-Kingsford Wastewater Treatment Plant observation site. A mere 1.06 inches of rain fell locally during September, which was more than 2.5 inches below normal, according to National Weather Service data. That follows just 1.31 inches in August and 1.3 inches in July.
The U.S. Drought Monitor shows extreme drought across northern Wisconsin and exceptional drought in portions of Ashland, Bayfield and Douglas counties in the northwest. There's moderate drought or worse in more than half the U.P., with extreme drought along much of the Wisconsin border.
Corn and soybean yields in northwestern Wisconsin have declined because of dry conditions, according to Wisconsin Public Radio. The latest crop report showed 59% of Wisconsin's corn crop was in good to excellent condition compared with 81% at the same time last year.
Bridgette Mason of the Wisconsin State Climatology Office told WPR this is only the second time Wisconsin has seen exceptionally dry conditions since the U.S. Drought Monitor began in 2000.
"If the rain continues to hold off, we could see continuing worsening conditions across the northern half of the state," Mason said.
As lake levels decline, waters may grow warmer and heighten chances of blue-green algae blooms or fish kills, Mason said. Farmers planting winter wheat and cover crops face concerns about not having enough moisture for seedlings to germinate and grow before they go dormant, she added.
Drought conditions have improved across central Wisconsin, WPR reported. Parts of that area have seen 3 to 6 inches more rain than normal over the last month.
Locally, this week's forecast is warm and sunny, with highs getting into the 70s by Sunday.
In the long view, the current El Nino pattern is projected to reach super status, raising expectations that the U.P.'s late fall and winter will be warmer than normal.
The Climate Prediction Center is neutral on the precipitation outlook this fall in the U.P., but a drier than normal winter is slightly favored. Along with a warmer winter, there's a greater likelihood for sleet, freezing rain, and rain.
Although El Nino is identified by warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific, the ocean volume in general appears to be warming.
"In our warmer world, it is entirely possible that El Nino events will grow more frequent and more intense," said Ryan Shadbolt, a Michigan State University senior academic specialist in the Department of Geography, Environment and Spatial Sciences.
The CPC sees about a 55% chance of above-average temperatures in the U.P. and northern Wisconsin from November through January, and just a 10% chance of below average.
"There is a 75 percent chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Nino events dating back to 1950," NWS forecaster Anthony Artusa said. "With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Nino are larger, but they are not guaranteed."
Temperatures at Iron Mountain-Kingsford averaged 61.8 degrees in September, which was 3.2 degrees above normal. The highest reading was 92 degrees on Sept. 1 -- a record observation for that date -- and the lowest was 35 degrees Sept. 23.
Along with being dry, September was the third straight month with above-average temperatures.
As of Sept. 30, the Upper Peninsula Travel and Recreation Association showed fall colors at their peak in Iron County, expected to continue into this week. The peak in Dickinson County was expected this week, continuing into next week.
———
Jim Anderson can be reached at 906-774-2772, ext. 85226, or janderson@ironmountaindailynews.com.