Forecast points to mild winter as drought turns extreme
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Temperatures in the Upper Peninsula this winter may range 4 to 6 degrees higher than average as a potentially record-setting El Nino is expected to shape global weather patterns, according to AccuWeather forecasters.
El Nino, characterized by warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific, is associated with mild winters in the Great Lakes region. Meteorologists believe this year's El Nino could be the strongest on record.
Not all El Nino winters behave the same, however, and forecasters caution that other seasonal factors will come into play.
"These influences can temporarily reshape storm tracks and lead to shifts in snowfall and temperatures, including occasional cold snaps in areas otherwise predicted to have a warmer winter," AccuWeather meteorologist Brian Lada said.
The National Weather Service sees about a 55% chance of above-normal temperatures across Michigan and Wisconsin from now through February and just a 10% chance of below normal. Below-average precipitation is slightly favored for the U.P. and northern Wisconsin.
As the El Nino strengthens, a drought across northern Wisconsin and bordering Upper Peninsula communities has turned extreme. All of the southernmost U.P. has extreme drought, including the Iron Mountain-Kingsford area. Conditions are extreme as well across the Wisconsin border in Florence County and northern Forest and Marinette counties.
The worst drought is in Iron County, Wis., extending into western Vilas County and into the U.P. in southern Gogebic County, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows.
Elsewhere, most of the Upper Peninsula is in severe drought, with moderate drought in areas near Lake Superior in Houghton, Baraga and Keweenaw counties.
At Iron Mountain-Kingsford, October rainfall measured 1.51 inches, which was 1.76 inches below normal. It was the fourth straight month with rainfall totals well below average, NWS data showed. Although May was wet, the rainfall deficit since then is approaching 8 inches.
October was warm, with temperatures at the Iron Mountain-Kingsford Wastewater Treatment Plant observation site averaging 52.8 degrees -- more than 6 degrees above average.
It was the sixth-warmest October since record-keeping began in the early 1900s. The warmest October was in 1920, when temperatures averaged 56.2 degrees.
The highest reading last month was 84 degrees on Oct. 10 and the lowest was 29 degrees on Oct. 17.
According to NWS, Oct. 17 also was the first frost of the fall, the second-latest on record, bettered only by an Oct. 22 date in 2021. There has now been no frost until October for four straight years at Iron Mountain-Kingsford.
The last frost of the spring this year came on May 21, well past the record of April 28 set in 1922.
Water temperatures near the equator in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean region that meteorologists monitor for El Nino were 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above average as of the last week of October, the Weather Channel reported. Linked to the El Nino, dozens of cities in the central U.S. have had a record warm fall through early November, including Chicago and Nashville.
Michigan's firearm deer season opens Sunday and there is no snow in the local forecast in the meantime. Opening day weather should be partly sunny with a high near 50, according to AccuWeather.
Jim Anderson can be reached at 906-774-2772, ext. 85226, or janderson@ironmountaindailynews.com.