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Poll: Who’s winning the blame game over the shutdown?

With the government shutdown now in its third week, a sign turns away tourists at the entrance to the Capitol Visitor Center in Washington. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

WASHINGTON (AP) — As the government shutdown drags on with no end in sight, a new AP-NORC poll finds that most Americans see it as a significant problem — and all of the major players are being blamed.

Roughly 6 in 10 Americans say President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress have “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of responsibility for the shutdown, while 54% say the same about Democrats in Congress, according to the poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. At least three-quarters of Americans believe each deserves at least a “moderate” share of blame, underscoring that no one is successfully evading responsibility.

The survey, conducted as the shutdown stretched into its third week, comes as leaders warn it could soon become the longest in history. Democrats are demanding an extension of tax credits that have helped millions of people afford health insurance since the coronavirus pandemic, while Republicans have refused to negotiate until Congress passes a funding bill to reopen the government.

The standoff has become a messaging battle, with each party betting the public will blame the other. The stakes are especially high for Democrats, now out of power and searching for a unifying fight to rally around ahead of pivotal 2026 midterm elections.

Slightly more of the public’s frustration appears to be aimed at the party in power. The poll finds that about half of Americans say Trump has “a great deal” of responsibility for the shutdown, the very highest amount of responsibility offered in the poll. That’s roughly the same share who fault Republicans in Congress, but higher than the 40% who say the same of Democrats.

The effects of the shutdown are beginning to be felt across the country. Flights have been delayed, and hundreds of thousands of federal employees who are furloughed or working without pay are starting to miss paychecks.

The poll finds that 54% of U.S. adults call the shutdown a “major issue,” with just 11% saying it is “not a problem at all.” Democrats are most likely, at 69%, to see it as a major problem, but 59% of independents and 37% of Republicans feel the same way.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said this week the country is “barreling toward one of the longest shutdowns in American history.” The last shutdown, during Trump’s first term, went a record 35 days and drew similar public sentiment, with Democrats more likely than Republicans to see it as a major problem.

The White House has warned the impact of the shutdown could be worse this time. While roughly 2 million service members were paid on time this week, the administration has used the federal workforce as leverage, and last weekend it began following through on threats to lay off federal workers. But on Wednesday, a federal judge in California temporarily blocked the firings, saying they appeared to be politically motivated and were being carried out without much thought.

At the center of the shutdown is a stalemate over federal tax credits for people who buy health insurance through the Affordable Care Act marketplace. Democrats want the credits extended, while Republicans say they will discuss the issue only once the government reopens.

The poll shows that roughly 4 in 10 U.S. adults support extending the tax credits, while about 1 in 10 oppose it outright. A large share, 42%, have no opinion, suggesting many Americans are not closely following the core dispute driving the shutdown.

Democrats say that keeping health insurance prices the same is central to their fight and that prices will skyrocket if Congress doesn’t do anything.

Both parties have framed the shutdown as a prelude to the 2026 midterms, with Democrats aiming to flip the House. So far, however, it doesn’t appear to have meaningfully shifted opinions about either party.

About 3 in 10 U.S. adults have a “somewhat” or “very” favorable view of the Democratic Party, in line with an AP-NORC poll from September. Four in 10 have a “somewhat” or “very” favorable view of the Republican Party, similar to last month.

Confidence in Congress, meanwhile, remains extremely low. Only about 4% of Americans say they have “a great deal” of confidence in the way Congress is being run, while 43% have “only some” confidence and about half have “hardly any” confidence.

But the poll suggests that health care could be a helpful issue for Democrats down the road. The poll found that 38% of Americans trust Democrats to do a better job handling health care, while only 25% trust Republicans more. About 1 in 10 trust both equally, and 25% trust neither.

The AP-NORC poll of 1,289 adults was conducted Oct. 9-13, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for adults overall is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

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