IRON MOUNTAIN – A long-range forecast from the National Weather Service calls for a warming trend down the road. But a big rally is needed to push 2014 from the ranks of the coldest years on record.

The first nine months of 2014 were the coldest in modern record-keeping at Iron Mountain-Kingsford, said Kevin Crupi, weather service meteorologist at Marquette.

“Even though September’s mean temperature was near normal, the first nine months of 2014 are still the coldest January through September period of any year at Iron Mountain since 1899,” he said.

The average temperature from January through September was 41.5 degrees, which was 3.9 degrees below normal and nearly one degree cooler than the record of 42.3 degrees set in 1950.

Periods of September warmth, especially near the end of the month, were offset by chilly days centered around mid-month, Crupi noted. The average temperature last month was 57.5 degrees, which was 0.1 degrees below normal.

The highest temperature was 83 degrees on Sept. 28 and the lowest was 34 degrees on Sept. 16.

The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a greater than climatological chance of above normal three-month average temperatures over all of Upper Michigan from November through January, Crupi said. Below normal precipitation is predicted for those same months.

The October forecast, on the other hand, is cool and wet.

“The weather pattern over Upper Michigan in September was rather changeable with periods of cool and wet weather as well as warm and dry ones that corresponded to the passage of upper troughs and ridges through the Great Lakes,” Crupi said.

A few widespread heavy rains resulted in normal to above normal rainfall across most of Upper Michigan. The heaviest precipitation fell near the Wisconsin border, with Iron Mountain-Kingsford the wettest spot in the region. September precipitation totaled 6.54 inches, which was 2.92 inches above normal.

It was the fourth-wettest September reported at Iron Mountain-Kingsford, measuring two inches shy of the record 8.54 inches that fell in 2010. The 2.39 inches of rain that fell on Sept. 4 established a new record for that date.

The nearest drought areas are the southwestern corner of Wisconsin and a portion of northeastern Minnesota, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

If the forecast for a warm start to winter holds true, it would be a welcome reversal from the winter of 2013-14. This past December through February marked the coldest winter period in more than a century of record-keeping at Iron Mountain-Kingsford, with temperatures averaging nearly nine degrees below normal.

Statistics for the Iron Mountain-Kingsford Wastewater Treatment plant cooperative observer site are based on records that began in March 1931. Any data listed from years before 1931 were taken at nearby sites. Normals used are for the period 1981 through 2010.

Some other temperature and precipitation observations across the Upper Peninsula in September:

– Ironwood, average temperature 54.9 (0.8 degrees below normal), precipitation 5.2 inches (1.14 inches above normal).

– Copper Harbor, average temperature 56.5 degrees, precipitation 2.8 inches.

– Baraga, average temperature 56.6 degrees, precipitation 3.57 inches.

– Big Bay, average temperature 57.3 degrees, precipitation 4.76 inches.

– Marquette, average temperature 58.6 (0.8 degrees below normal), precipitation 4.35 inches (1.19 inches above normal).

– Munising, average temperature 56.2 (1.1 degrees below normal), precipitation 3.39 inches (0.68 inches below normal).

– Newberry, average temperature 56.7 (0.4 degrees below normal), precipitation 3.39 inches (0.42 inches below normal).

– Iron River, average temperature 51.6 degrees, precipitation 4.59 inches.

– Amasa, average temperature 54.1 degrees, precipitation 3.45 inches.

– Escanaba, average temperature 59.2 degrees, precipitation 5.77 inches.

– Garden Corners, average temperature 55.9 degrees, precipitation 3.78 inches

– Manistique, average temperature 56.5 (0.5 degrees below normal), precipitation 3.79 inches (0.03 inches below normal).

Jim Anderson’s email address is janderson@ironmountaindailynews.com.