Layla Osieczonek walks beagle Tucker on Stockbridge Avenue in Iron Mountain on Sunday. It was an unusually warm weekend for October, with unofficial highs in the 80s both days that neared or surpassed local records for the dates. (Terri Castelaz/Daily News)

IRON MOUNTAIN — After a warm start to fall, the National Weather Service is serving up a neutral forecast stretching into winter across the Upper Peninsula.

From now through December, above-normal temperatures are favored over much of the U.S., but the upper Great Lakes is an exception, NWS forecaster Anthony Artusa said.

Forecasters expect a weak La Nina to emerge, fading by late winter and spring. La Nina, the cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, is linked to colder- and stormier- than-average conditions across the northern U.S.

“By late fall and early winter, favored above-normal temperatures are predicted to be limited to the far southern and far eastern portions of the continental U.S.,” Artusa said.

The Climate Prediction Center’s precipitation outlook for the U.P. and northern Wisconsin is neutral until February. Above-normal precipitation is then slightly favored. The temperature outlook is neutral throughout the winter.

Temperatures in September averaged 61.8 degrees locally, which was 3.2 degrees higher than the norm. The highest reading at the Iron Mountain-Kingsford Wastewater Treatment Plant observation site was 88 degrees on Sept. 17 — a record for that date — while the lowest was 41 degrees on Sept. 3 and Sept. 4.

Temperatures ranged below average from Sept. 3 through Sept. 11. They then stayed above average through the rest of the month.

This will mark the fourth year in the past five with no frost reported until October. The latest first autumn frost on record was Oct. 22, 2021.

The average date for the first autumn frost this century is Oct. 2, while the average for records dating to the early 1900s is Sept. 21.

Unofficial highs of 84 degrees Saturday and 87 degrees Sunday neared or surpassed local record highs of 86 degrees for Oct. 4 and 5 that were set in 1922, Weather Underground data shows.

Rainfall in September totaled 1.42 inches at Iron Mountain-Kingsford, which was a little more than 2 inches below normal. Abnormally dry conditions are reported by the U.S. Drought Monitor over much of northern Wisconsin, but there are no areas of concern in the U.P.

Elsewhere in the U.P., 3.12 inches of rain fell in September at Marquette, which was very near average. Iron River’s total was 6.35 inches — nearly 3 inches above the norm.

This year’s first full supermoon will shine at its brightest at 10:47 p.m. today. A supermoon occurs when the moon is at or near its closest point to Earth in its orbit.

According to NASA, the moon tonight could appear to be about 30% brighter and up to 14% larger than a typical full moon.

The Orionid meteor shower is expect to peak Oct. 21, shooting about 20 meteors per hour across the night sky.

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Jim Anderson can be reached at 906-774-2772, ext. 85226, or janderson@ironmountaindailynews.com.