Stars glow above a cabin in Catron County, New Mexico. The county, known for scenery and a dark sky for stargazers, has attracted retirees and now has one of the largest ratios of older adults to children in the country. (Photo courtesy of U.S. Forest Service by Belinda Mollard)

Catron County, New Mexico, may be seeing the future of an aging population today. It has beautiful landscapes that draw retirees who fall in love with the area and want to stay among soaring rock formations and bright stars in dark skies.

But it’s a tough place to get even minimal medical care. And employees are hard to find, with few young people to hire and support the tax base. It’s a microcosm of the national trend: By 2034 the whole country may have more older adults than children; Social Security’s retirement fund could be exhausted by 2032, and the nation will depend on an ever-shrinking workforce of young people.

“For quality health care, if you need even an X-ray, you are driving an hour and a half,” said Catron County Manager Deborah Mahler. “We have 900 miles of dirt roads that are not passable when it rains, so you have to have a four-wheel-drive vehicle with a high profile.”

Some hospital systems send shuttle buses, but it’s not enough and the county would like to offer more medical transportation and attract a local medical practice. But there is little tax base to support either, Mahler said.

Local parks and ranches in the county, which abuts the state line with Arizona, provide world-class elk hunting and beautiful scenery such as the Cosmic Campground’s dark sky sanctuary for stargazers and the Catwalk National Recreation Trail through desert rock formations.

But with parks taking up so much land, there’s not much space for industry that might provide jobs for young families or provide a tax base to help older people, she said.

There are now 17 states with more people older than 65 than children younger than 18 as of last year. That’s up from 13 states in 2024 and just five in 2020, according to new U.S. Census Bureau estimates to be released Thursday.

Michigan, New Mexico, South Carolina and Wisconsin are new to the list, which reflects ages as of mid-2025.

Others may soon see some of the challenges already familiar to places such as Sumter County, Florida, where there are almost eight older adults per one child. The ratio is more than 4 to 1 in McCormick County, South Carolina; Catron County, New Mexico; and Jefferson County, Washington.

Many states are enacting or considering legislation to support older residents: Wisconsin passed laws this year aimed at elder scams and easing the transition from hospital care to rehabilitation, and last year enacted a support program for dementia caregivers.

New Mexico enacted a Medigap law in March allowing Medicare users to switch plans without insurers denying coverage or charging higher rates based on health status.

South Carolina’s state Senate passed a bill to give larger property tax breaks in February, but the measure stalled in a state House committee.

Michigan is working on a state plan to help older residents and their families starting next year, with a report due Wednesday and taking effect in October.

In 2020, the only states where older adults outnumbered children were Florida, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont and West Virginia. Since then, besides the four states added in 2025, these states are also on the list: Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Montana, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.

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This story was originally produced by Stateline, which is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network that includes Wisconsin Examiner and Michigan Advance, and is supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501(c)(3) public charity.