IRON MOUNTAIN — Meteorologists are neutral on the early winter outlook for the Upper Peninsula, but a colder and snowier turn by February is also in the mix.

For the near term, “climate signals are weak,” said National Weather Service forecaster Jon Gottschalck. Looking ahead, January may be somewhat colder than usual while there’s a higher confidence of a cold February.

For December through February, the Climate Prediction Center calls for about a 40% chance of below-average temperatures in the U.P. and a 27% chance of above-normal.

“La Nina conditions remain in place in the Pacific Ocean and its influence continues to contribute to the temperature and precipitation outlooks through the upcoming winter months into early spring 2023,” Gottschalck said.

This marks the third straight winter that La Nina — a cooling of the eastern Pacific near the equator — influences the jet stream and weather patterns in North America.

“We continue the remarkable drive toward a third consecutive La Nina winter, a relatively rare occurrence in our recorded history, with the last three-peat occurring from 1998-2000,” said Todd Crawford, meteorologist at Atmospheric G2.

La Nina is sometimes associated with colder, wetter winters in the Great Lakes region, but other variables come into play. Mainly, a strong polar vortex would keep the coldest air bottled up near the North Pole, while a weak vortex would let it bulge southward.

“We have no strong reason to favor a super-weak vortex like we had in winter 2020-21 at this time, and feel this winter will be more like last winter,” Crawford said.

The U.P.’s precipitation outlook for the rest of autumn is neutral, but the outlook through March favors above-normal precipitation.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows abnormally dry conditions and areas of moderate drought in northern Wisconsin and bordering U.P. counties. Rainfall in October measured just 1.39 inches at the Iron Mountain-Kingsford Wastewater Treatment Plant, which was 1.1 inches below normal.

Temperatures averaged 46.1 degrees at Iron Mountain-Kingsford in October, which was very close to normal. The highest reading was 77 degrees Oct. 5 and 6, while the lowest was 23 degrees Oct. 26.

High temperatures are expected to reach into the 40s and 50s this week before dropping into the 30s for the weekend. The predicted high for the Nov. 15 opener of the Michigan firearm deer season is 33 degrees.